Published on
Feb 19, 2026
AI Loan Apocalypse: Software Firms Face $73B Debt Cliff in 2028?
AI is shaking up software companies, making it tougher for those with big debts to refinance loans. Investors worry AI will kill demand for traditional software, hurting profits and credit ratings.
Main Problems
Software stocks are dropping—down over 4% this year—due to fears AI will replace off-the-shelf tools. More than half the sector's $130 billion debt is junk-rated (B-minus or worse), so weak results make it risky. Loans are trading cheap, and no new ones are selling easily.
Debt Crunch Ahead
About $73 billion in loans mature soon, peaking at $59 billion in 2028—faster than average. Starting mid-2027, companies may scramble for fixes like debt swaps instead of bankruptcy.
Bigger Picture
This hits the $250 billion tech chunk of the $1.5 trillion loan market hard, possibly sparking mergers or sales if AI keeps disrupting.